Economic Challenhes for Korea : Mega-Trends and Scenario Analyses

Preface
Executive Summary
Acknowledgements
GDI : Research Team and Advisors

Chapter 1. Project Introduction and Purpose

Chapter 2. The Nature of Scenario Analyses and Its Use
- Why Scenario Analysis?
- The Methodology Underlying Scenario Analysis
- Use of Scenario Analysis in This Report

Chapter 3. The Gamut of Economic Risks Facing Korea Today
- The Idea of a Risk Profile
- Korea’s Risk Profile in Brief
- Medium Term Risks Facing the Korean Economy
- Conclusions

Chapter 4. Mega-trends Influencing Medium-Term Scenarios
- An Overview
- Mega-trend 1: The Trend Towards De-globalization
- Mega-trend 2: Disruptive Technologies and Impacts
- Mega-trend 3: Persistent Global Uncertainty

Chapter 5. A Trade War Scenario
- Introduction
- A Historical Perspective
- Why a U.S. Trade War with China?
- Starting a Trade War is Easy, Controlling it Less So
- The Impact on Korea

Chapter 6. A Troubled China Scenario
- Introduction to the Current Baseline Scenario
- The Troubled China Scenario
- The Case of a China Slowdown
- The Case of a Financial Crisis
- The Case of Dramatic Rebalancing
- Combined Troubled China scenario and its Implications

Chapter 7. A Global Meltdown Scenario
- Introduction
- A Global Meltdown Scenario
- The Major Economies
- The Trade Story Dominates
- Financial Stagnation and Protectionism
- Global Inaction Increases Risks

Chapter 8. Risk Assessment and Analysis : Vulnerabilities and Resilience
- Introduction
- The Chinese Challenge
- Managing Risks
- Improving Efficiency and Flexibility in the Economy
- Strengthening Innovation Capacity
- Increasing Trade Diversification
- Conclusions and Key Recommendations
- Final Thoughts

Annex
Background Notes
A. The Economic Relationship between China and the U.S.
B. U.S. Trade Policy toward China
C. Implications of Disruptive Technology for Korea
D. The Economic Relationship between Korea and the U.S.
E. Levels of Economic Integration between Korea and China

References