Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry : Models for New Product and In-Market Forecasting and How to Use Them (Paperback, 2 ed)

Introduction. The Past and the Present: The inaccuracy of forecasting; Forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry; The present state: influences across functions; The time horizon for the forecast; In summary. The Forecasting Process: Define the forecast; Select a forecast method; Enable analytic insights; Present the results; Final considerations. New Product Forecasting: Tools and methods; New product forecast algorithm; Modeling the market; Forecasting the product; Converting patient to revenue; Final considerations. In-Market Forecasting: In-market product forecast algorithm; Trending historical data; Applying the effects of ex-trend events; Converting trended data into forecast outputs; Final considerations. Thoughts for the Future: Era of revitalization; Create stories, not spreadsheets; Hire a science fiction writer; Holistic forecasting. References. Appendices: Spreadsheets paper over real problems; Forecast techniques; Case study; Case study suggested solutions. Index.