2015 ~ 2065 장래 인구 추계

Ⅰ. 장래인구추계 개요
1. 작성목적 ················································································································· 1
2. 법적근거 ················································································································· 1
3. 연 혁 ················································································································· 1
4. 추계기간 및 대상 ································································································· 2
5. 작성절차 ················································································································· 2
6. 용어해설 ················································································································· 4

Ⅱ. 장래인구추계 작성방법 및 가정설정
1. 코호트요인법 ········································································································· 6
2. 기준인구(2015년) ·································································································· 7
3. 소급인구(2001~2014년) ························································································ 8
4. 출산력 추계방법 ··································································································· 9
5. 사망력 추계방법 ································································································· 16
6. 국제이동 추계방법 ····························································································· 20
7. 장래인구추계 시나리오 ····················································································· 24
8. 2016년 장래인구추계 개선사항(신·구추계 비교) ········································· 27
9. 100년(2065~2115년) 추계방법 ·········································································· 30

Ⅲ. 장래인구추계 결과
1. 총인구와 인구성장률 ························································································· 31
2. 인구변동요인(출생, 사망, 국제이동) ······························································ 33
3. 연령계층별 인구 ································································································· 36
4. 생산가능인구 ······································································································· 39
5. 고령인구 ··············································································································· 41
6. 유소년인구 및 학령인구 ··················································································· 43
7. 중위연령 ··············································································································· 45
8. 부양비 및 노령화지수 ······················································································· 46
9. 인구피라미드 ······································································································· 48
10. 국제비교 ············································································································· 49

Ⅳ. 통 계 표
1. 중위추계, 1960-2065 ··························································································· 53
1.1. 총인구, 성비 및 인구성장률 ····································································· 53
1.2. 출생·사망·국제순이동 ················································································· 55
1.3. 연령계층별 인구 및 구성비 ······································································ 56
1.4. 생산가능인구(15~64세) 및 구성비 ··························································· 60
1.5. 고령인구(65세 이상) 및 구성비 ······························································· 64
1.6. 학령인구(6~21세) ························································································· 68
1.7. 부양비 및 노령화지수 ················································································ 72
1.8. 중위연령 및 평균연령 ················································································ 73
1.9. 5세 계급별 추계인구 ·················································································· 75
1.10. 1세별 추계인구 ·························································································· 88
2. 고위추계, 2015-2065
2.1. 총인구, 성비 및 인구성장률 ··································································· 160
2.2. 출생·사망·국제순이동 ··············································································· 161
2.3. 연령계층별 인구 및 구성비 ···································································· 162
2.4. 생산가능인구(15~64세) 및 구성비 ························································· 164
2.5. 고령인구(65세 이상) 및 구성비 ····························································· 166
2.6. 학령인구(6~21세) ······················································································· 168
2.7. 부양비 및 노령화지수 ·············································································· 170
2.8. 중위연령 및 평균연령 ·············································································· 171
2.9. 5세 계급별 추계인구 ················································································ 172
2.10. 1세별 추계인구 ························································································ 178
3. 저위추계, 2015-2065
3.1. 총인구, 성비 및 인구성장률 ··································································· 212
3.2. 출생·사망·국제순이동 ··············································································· 213
3.3. 연령계층별 인구 및 구성비 ···································································· 214
3.4. 생산가능인구(15~64세) 및 구성비 ························································· 216
3.5. 고령인구(65세 이상) 및 구성비 ····························································· 218
3.6. 학령인구(6~21세) ······················································································· 220
3.7. 부양비 및 노령화지수 ·············································································· 222
3.8. 중위연령 및 평균연령 ·············································································· 223
3.9. 5세 계급별 추계인구 ··················································································224
3.10. 1세별 추계인구 ··························································································230
4. 특별 시나리오별 추계, 2015-2065
4.1. 총인구 ·········································································································· 264
4.2. 출생·사망·국제순이동 ··············································································· 269
4.3. 성별 인구, 성비, 인구성장률 및 연령별 인구 ···································· 272
5. 인구변동요인별 가정, 2015-2065
5.1. 합계출산율 ·································································································· 299
5.2. 연령별 출산율 ···························································································· 300
5.3. 기대수명 ······································································································ 304
5.4. 장래 생명표 ································································································ 307
5.5. 내국인 연령별 국제순이동률 ·································································· 325
5.6. 외국인 국제순이동자 ················································································ 327
5.7. 외국인 국제순이동자 연령별 구성비 ···················································· 328

Ⅴ. 부록 : 100년 추계, 2065~2115
1. 총인구 ················································································································· 331
2. 출생?사망?국제순이동 ······················································································· 332
3. 성별 인구, 성비, 인구성장률 및 연령별 인구 ········································· 336
4. 기대수명 ············································································································· 340