Twenty-one Mental Models That Can Change Policing : A Framework for Using Data and Research for Overcoming Cognitive Bias (Paperback)

Prologue: The Shoulders of Giants Introduction: What is a Mental Model and How Does It Help Policing Part I: How We Think Mental Model #1: System 1 and 2 Mental Model #2: Cognitive Bias Mental Model #3: First Principles Thinking The Mental Models in Practice I: Mental Models 1-3 Part II: How We Think About Math Mental Model #4: False Linear Thinking Mental Model #5: Binary Percent Changes Mental Model #6: Second Order Thinking The Mental Models in Practice II: Mental Models 4-6 Part III: How Things Concentrate Mental Model #7: Pareto Principle Mental Model #8: The Law of Crime concentration Mental Model #9: Felonious Few The Mental Models in Practice III: Mental Models 7-9 Part IV: How Things Vary Mental Model #10: Distributions Mental Model #11: Law of Large numbers Mental Model #12: Regression to the Mean The Mental Models in Practice IV: Mental Models 10-12 Part V: How to Determine Causality Mental Model #13: Correlation is not Causation Mental Model #14: Causal Inference Mental Model #15: Bayesian (Probabilistic) Reasoning The Mental Models in Practice V: Mental Models 13-15 Part VI: How to Think Scientifically Mental Model #16: Peer Review Your Perspectives Mental Model #17: The Scientific Method Mental Model #18: Evidence-based Practices The Mental Models in Practice VI: Mental Models 16-18 Part VII: How to Make Decisions Mental Model #19: Targeting, Testing, and Tracking Mental Model #20: Harm Indexes Mental Model #21: Decision-making Models The Mental Models in Practice VII: Mental Models 19-21 Part VIII: How to Apply it All Conclusion: How the Twenty-one Mental Models Can Improve Policing and Reduce Cognitive Bias Mental Model Method: How it all Fits Together Mental Models 1-21 Notes