[eBook Code] Applied Risk Analysis (eBook Code, 1st)

· 제목 : [eBook Code] Applied Risk Analysis (eBook Code, 1st) (Moving Beyond Uncertainty in Business)
· 분류 : 외국도서 > 경제경영 > 금융/재정 > 일반
· ISBN : 9780471700845
· 쪽수 : 480쪽
· 출판일 : 2009-05-18

Introduction.

PART ONE: Risk Identification.

CHAPTER 1: Beyond Uncertainty.

A Brief History of Risk: What Exactly Is Risk?

Uncertainty Versus Risk.

Why Is Risk Important in Making Decisions?

Dealing with Risk the Old Fashioned Way.

The Look and Feel of Risk and Uncertainty.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: ExperCorp.

Questions.

PART TWO: Risk Evaluation.

CHAPTER 2: From Risk to Riches.

Taming the Beast.

The Basics of Risk.

The Nature of Risk and Returns.

The Statistics of Risk.

The Measurements of Risk.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Farmland.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Environmental Protection Agency.

Questions.

CHAPTER 3: A Gentleman’s Guide to Model Building.

Document the Model.

Separate Inputs, Calculations, and Results.

Protect the Models.

Make the Model User-Friendly: Data Validation and Alerts.

Track the Model.

Automate the Model with VBA.

Appendix—A Primer on VBA Modeling and Writing Macros.

Exercises.

PART THREE: Risk Quantification.

CHAPTER 4: On the Shores of Monaco.

What Is Monte Carlo Simulation?

Why Are Simulations Important?

Comparing Simulation with Traditional Analyses.

Using Crystal Ball and Excel to Perform Simulations.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Colorado School of Mines.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Hewlett-Packard.

Appendix—Simulation.

Questions.

CHAPTER 5: Peering into the Crystal Ball.

The Basics of Crystal Ball Software.

Getting Started with Crystal Ball Software.

The Simulation Environment.

Creating a Simulation.

Interpreting the Simulation Results.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: TRW.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: DuPont Merck.

Questions.

CHAPTER 6: Pandora’s Tool Box.

Tornado and Sensitivity Tools in Simulation.

Correlating and Fitting a Distribution Plus Precision Control.

Precision Control.

Bootstrap Simulation.

Two-Dimensional Simulation.

Decision Tables.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: 3M.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Deloitte & Touche Consulting.

Appendix—Goodness-of-Fit Tests.

Questions.

PART FOUR: Industry Applications.

CHAPTER 7: Extended Business Cases I: From Pharma to Black Gold.

Case Study: Pharmaceutical and Biotech—High Precision Quantitative Deal Structuring in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Industries™.

Case Study: Oil and Gas Production and Exploration.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Sierra Systems.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Motorola.

PART FIVE: Risk Prediction.

CHAPTER 8: Tomorrow’s Forecast Today.

What Is Forecasting?

The Nature and View of Forecasting.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Hewlett-Packard.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: SunTrust Bank.

Questions.

CHAPTER 9: Using the Past to Predict the Future.

Time-Series Forecasting Methodology.

No Trend and No Seasonality.

With Trend But No Seasonality.

No Trend But With Seasonality.

With Seasonality and With Trend.

Regression Analysis.

The Pitfalls of Forecasting: Outliers, Nonlinearity, Multicollinearity, Heteroskedasticity, Autocorrelation, and Structural Breaks.

Other Technical Issues in Regression Analysis.

Introduction to Advanced Forecasting.

Appendix A—Forecast Intervals.

Appendix B—Ordinary Least Squares.

Appendix C—Detecting and Fixing Heteroskedasticity.

Appendix D—Detecting and Fixing Multicollinearity.

Appendix E—Detecting and Fixing Autocorrelation.

Questions.

Exercise.

PART SIX: Risk Diversification.

CHAPTER 10: The Search for the Optimal Decision.

What Is an Optimization Model?

The Traveling Financial Planner.

The Lingo of Optimization.

Solving Optimization Graphically and Using Excel’s Solver.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: ProVise Management.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Texaco.

Questions.

CHAPTER 11: Optimization under Uncertainty.

Project Selection Model (Discrete Optimization under Uncertainty).

Portfolio Optimization Using Risk and Return (Continuous Stochastic Optimization).

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Minnesota Power.

Question.

Exercise.

PART SEVEN: Risk Mitigation.

CHAPTER 12: What Is So Real About Real Options, and Why Are They Optional?

What Is Real Options?

The Real Options Solution in a Nutshell.

Issues to Consider.

Implementing Real Options Analysis.

Choosing the Right Real Options Analysis Tools.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Boeing.

Questions.

CHAPTER 13: The Black Box Made Transparent: Real Options Analysis Toolkit.

Getting Started with Real Options Analysis Toolkit Software.

The Lattice Viewer.

The Help Environment.

Solving Customized Options.

Accessing the Functions, Running Simulations and Optimization.

Appendix—Expensing of Employee Stock Options (FAS 123): The Death of Black–Scholes.

PART EIGHT: More Industry Applications.

CHAPTER 14: Extended Business Cases II: From Land to Money.

Case Study: Understanding Risk and Optimal Timing in a Real Estate Development Using Real Options Analysis.

Case Study: Using Stochastic Optimization and Valuation Models to Evaluate the Credit Risk of Corporate Restructuring.

PART NINE: Risk Management.

CHAPTER 15: The Warning Signs.

The Problem of Negligent Entrustment.

Management’s Due Diligence.

Sins of an Analyst.

Questions.

CHAPTER 16: Changing a Corporate Culture.

How to Get Risk Analysis Accepted in an Organization.

Change-Management Issues and Paradigm Shifts.

Making Tomorrow’s Forecast Today.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Banker’s Trust.

Five-Minute Industry Spotlight: Environment Canada.

Notes.

List of Models.

Tables You Really Need.

Standard Normal Distribution (partial area).

Standard Normal Distribution (full area).

Student’s t-Distribution (one and two-tails).

Durbin–Watson Critical Values.

Normal Random Numbers (standard normal distribution’s random number generated ~ (N(0,1)).

Random Numbers (multiple digits).

Uniform Random Numbers (uniform distribution’s random number generated between 0.0000 and 1.0000).

Chi-Square Critical Values.

F-Distribution Critical Statistics (alpha-one tail 0.10).

F-Distribution Critical Statistics (alpha-one tail 0.05).

F-Distribution Critical Statistics (alpha-one tail 0.25).

F-Distribution Critical Statistics (alpha-one tail 0.01).

Real Options Analysis Value (1-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (3-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (5-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (7-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (10-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (15-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Real Options Analysis Value (30-year maturity at 5% risk-free rate).

Answers to End of Chapter Questions and Exercises.

About the CD-ROM.

Index.