Politics, Paradigms, and Intelligence Failures : Why So Few Predicted the Collapse of the Soviet Union (Hardcover)

Introduction: The Theory and Practice of Predicting Political Change; 1. Theories of Political Change and Prediction of Change: Methodological Problems; 2. Oligarchic Petrification or Pluralistic Transformation: Paradigmatic Views of the Soviet Union in the 1970s; 3. Paradigms and the Debate on Relations with the Soviet Union: Detente, New Internationalism, and Neoconservatism; 4. The Reagan Administration and the Soviet Interregnum: Accelerating the Demise of the Communist Empire; 5. Acceleration: Tinkering Around the Edges, 1985-1986; 6. Perestroika: Systemic Change, 1987-1989; The Unintended Consequences of Radical Transformation: Losing Control of the Revolution and the Collapse of the Soviet Union, 1990-1991; 8. Reflections on Predictive Failures