Decoding Black Swans and Other Historic Risk Events : Themes of Progress and Opportunity for Risk Science (Hardcover)

Foreword??????????

About the Authors????????

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1: Framework used to decode the risk events

Chapter 2: Historical events to be decoded?????

Global pandemics????????

Industrial accidents????

Infrastructure failures?

Natural disasters??????????

Acts of terrorism and war?????????

Food safety??????

Chapter 3: Historical perspective on risk??????????

Chapter 4: Historical precedent for remembering and understanding risk issues????????

Chapter 5: Characterization of surprise and unpredictability??

Chapter 6: Severity of consequences in relation to uncertainties and knowledge???????

Titanic case ? Evaluation of consequences?????

Chapter 7: Uncertainty characterizations????????

Fukushima Daiichi case ? Evaluation of Probabilistic Risk Assessment at nuclear plants??????????

Chapter 8: Types of knowledge that inform understanding of risk????????

9/11 case ? Classification of knowledge???????????

Chapter 9: Credibility of knowledge?????

Food additives case ? Credibility of knowledge?????????????

Chapter 10: Factors influencing understanding and communication of risk, uncertainties, and probabilities???

Cuyahoga River Fire ? Communication of risk-related information???????

Chapter 11: Biases, misinformation, and disinformation

Biases and moral hazards ? East Palestine Train Derailment and similar freight accidents

COVID-19 Misinformation and disinformation?

Chapter 12: Balancing various dimensions of a risk application

BP Oil Spill ? Dimensions of risk for oil and gas operations and related regulation

Chapter 13: The weight given to resilience

Hurricane Katrina ? Why New Orleans was vulnerable and how resilience emerged

Chapter 14: The big picture of risk science surrounding major historical events

Smoking, social media, and processed foods ? linking three global risk issues

Chapter 15: How risk science improves the ability to address the gaps in the themes presented

Chapter 16: Who is the risk analyst and what are the expectations

Chapter 17: Unresolved issues in risk science identified in the presented themes

Abraham Lincoln assassination ? Hindsight bias vs. noise leading to a risk event

Chapter 18: Conclusions

Further reading and references

Index

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