The Long Good Buy: Analysing Cycles in Markets (Hardcover)

Acknowledgements

About the Author

Preface

Introduction

Part I Lessons from the past

Chapter 1 – Riding The Cycle Under Very Different Conditions

Psychology & The Cycle

Chapter 2:  The ‘Long Good Buy’; Returns Over The Long Run

Returns Over Different Holding Periods

The Reward For Risk, And The Equity Risk Premium

The Power Of Dividends

Factors That Impact Returns For Investors

Market Timing

Valuations And Returns Of Equities Versus Bonds

Chapter 3: The Equities Cycle; Identifying The Phases

The Four Phases Of The Equity Cycle

Mini-/High-Frequency Cycles Within The Investment Cycle

The Interplay Between The Cycle And Bond Yields

Chapter 4: Asset Returns Through The Cycle

Assets Across The Economic Cycle

Assets Across The Investment Cycle

The Changing Relationship Between Equities And Bonds Through The Cycle

1. The Point Of The Cycle – Equities Are More Immune Earlier In The Cycle

2. The Speed Of Adjustment – Slower Is Better

3. The Level Of Yields Matters

Structural Shifts In The Value Of Equities And Bonds

Chapter 5.  Investment Styles Over The Cycle

1. Cyclical Versus Defensive Companies

2. Value Versus Growth Companies

Value, Growth And Duration

Part II    The nature & causes of bull and bear markets

Chapter 6: Bear Necessities; The Nature And Shape Of Bear Markets

Bear Markets Are Not All The Same

Cyclical Bear Markets

Cyclical Bear Markets And Profits

Event-Driven Bear Markets

Structural Bear Markets

Interest Rate Cuts Are Not Sufficient To Cure The Bear Market

Price Shocks: Deflation Is A Common Characteristic

Belief In A New Era/New Valuations

Very High Levels Of Debt

Equity Market Becoming Narrow

High Volatility

The Relationship Between Bear Markets And Corporate Profits

A Summary Of Bear Market Characteristics

Defining The Financial Crisis - A 'Structural' Bear Market With A Difference

Finding An Indicator To Flag Bear Market Risk

What About Conditions Prior To Bear Markets?

Developing A Framework For Anticipating Bear Markets

Chapter 7: Bull’s Eye; The Nature And Shape Of Bull Markets

The ‘Super Cycle’ Secular Bull Market

1) 1945-1968 – Post-War Boom

2) 1982-2000 – The Start Of Disinflation

3) 2009 Onwards; The Start Of Qe And The ‘Great Moderation’

Cyclical Bull Markets

Variations In The Length Of Bull Markets

Non-Trending Bull Markets

Skinny & Flat Markets

Chapter 8: Blowing Bubbles; Signs Of Excess

Spectacular Price Appreciation … And Collapse

A ‘New Era’… This Time Is Different

De-Regulation And Financial Innovation

Easy Credit

New Valuation Approaches

Accounting Problems And Scandals

 Part IIILessons for the future

Chapter 9:  How The Cycle Has Changed Post The Financial Crisis

Three Waves Of The Financial Crisis

The Unusual Gap Between Financial Markets And Economies

All Boats Were Lifted By The Liquidity Wave

The Unusual Drivers Of The Return

Lower Inflation And Interest Rates

A Downtrend In Global Growth Expectations

The Rising Influence Of Technology

The Extraordinary Gap Between Growth And Value

Lessons From Japan

Chapter 10: Below Zero – The Impact Of Ultra-Low Bond Yields

The Impact Of Zero Bond Yields On Equity Valuations

Zero Bond Yields And Growth Expectations

Backing Out Expected Future Growth

Zero Rates And Demographics

Zero Rates And The Demand For Risk Assets

Chapter 11: The Impact Of Technology On The Cycle

The Ascent Of Technology And Historical Parallels

The Printing Press And The First Great Data Revolution

... While The Railway Revolution Built Connected Infrastructure

Electricity And Oil Fuelled The 20th Century

Adaption And New Opportunities

Technology And Growth In The Cycle

How Long Can Stocks And Sectors Dominate?

Sector Dominance In The Market

Valuations Of Today's Tech Stocks Are Much Lower Than In Bubble Periods Of The Past

How Big Can Companies Get Relative To The Market?

Technology And The Widening Gaps Between Winners And Losers

Summary and Conclusions

References

Index