Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks (Hardcover, 2 ed)

There Is More to Assessing Risk Than Statistics.

The Need for Causal, Explanatory Models in Risk Assessment.

Measuring Uncertainty: The Inevitability of Subjectivity.

The Basics of Probability.

Bayes’ Theorem and Conditional Probability.

From Bayes’ Theorem to Bayesian Networks.

Defining the Structure of Bayesian Networks.

Building and Eliciting Node Probability Tables.

Numeric Variables and Continuous Distribution Functions.

Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals.

Modeling Operational Risk.

Systems Reliability Modeling.

Bayes and the Law.

Learning Bayesian Networks.

Decision making, Influence Diagrams and Value of information.

Bayesian networks in forensics.

Using Bayesian networks to debunk bad statistics.

Bayesian networks for football prediction.

Appendix A: The Basics of Counting.

Appendix B: The Algebra of Node Probability Tables.

Appendix C: Junction Tree Algorithm.

Appendix D: Dynamic Discretization.

Appendix E: Statistical Distributions.