Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty (Hardcover)

The BasicsWhat is Risk?What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of Book Uncertainty Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Being Intentional About Uncertainty Risk Management Identifying Problems and Opportunities Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Risk Management Models Risk Assessment What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Risk Communication Definitions Internal Risk Communication External Risk Communication Problem Identification for Risk ManagementWhat’s a Problem? What’s an Opportunity?Becoming Aware of Problems and OpportunitiesProblem and Opportunity Identification TechniquesThe P&O Statement BrainstormingWhat Can You Brainstorm?BackgroundAvoid Problems in Your ProcessA Few Good Techniques3× YeahGroup Evaluations with Colored DotsDo You Need a Facilitator?Addendum Opportunity Costs and Trade-OffsEconomics for Risk ManagersEconomics and Decision MakingEconomic Basis for Interactions among PeoplePrinciples of the Economy as a WholeMaking Trade-OffsEconomic Analysis Qualitative Risk AssessmentRisk = Probability × ConsequenceA Generic ProcessMore or Less RiskRisk NarrativesEvidence MapsOrdering TechniquesThe Risk MatrixQualitative Risk Assessment ModelsMCDAA Semiquantitative Risk Assessment Example The Art and Practice of Risk Assessment ModelingTypes of ModelsA Model-Building ProcessSimulation ModelsRequired Skill Sets Probability ReviewTwo Schools of ThoughtProbability EssentialsHow Do We Get Probabilities?Working with ProbabilitiesWhy You Need to Know This Choosing a Probability DistributionGraphical ReviewStrategy for Selecting a Probability DistributionExample 1Example 2A Dozen Useful Probability Distributions for Risk Assessors Probability ElicitationProbability WordsSubjective ProbabilityWhen to Do an ElicitationMaking Judgments under UncertaintyResponding to HeuristicsThe Elicitation ProtocolCalibrationMultiple Experts Monte Carlo ProcessBackgroundA Two-Step ProcessHow Many Iterations?Sampling MethodAn Illustration Probabilistic Scenario AnalysisCommon ScenariosTypes of Scenario AnalysisScenario ComparisonsTools for Constructing ScenariosAdding Probability to the ScenariosAn Example Sensitivity AnalysisQualitative Sensitivity AnalysisQuantitative Sensitivity AnalysisThe Point Presenting and Using Assessment ResultsUnderstand Your Assessment Output Data Before You Explain ItExamine the QuantitiesExamine the ProbabilitiesExamine RelationshipsAnswer the QuestionsVisualization of DataDecision Making under Uncertainty Message DevelopmentCommunication ModelsThe Need for Message Strategies for Risk CommunicationCrisis CommunicationMessage MappingImpediments to Risk CommunicationDeveloping Risk Communication Messages Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000ISO 31000Enterprise Risk ManagementObservations Appendix B: Using Palisade’s Decision Tools SuiteTopRank@RISKPrecisionTree Index All chapters include an introduction, summary, and references.