Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycle (Hardcover)

Preface and Acknowledgements Part 1: Seeing The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos Chapter 1 Seeing Around Economic Corners Chapter 2 Making Sense of the Economy Chapter 3 Getting Out of Harm s Way: Redefining Economic Downturns Chapter 4 The ROCET Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession Chapter 5 Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out Chapter 6 The Nature of Leading Indicators Part 2: Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market Chapter 7 Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy Chapter 8 Consumer Spending and the Stock Market Part 3: Forecasting Consumer Spending Chapter 9 Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology Chapter 10 Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy Chapter 11 Employment and Unemployment: The Economy s Deceptive Laggard Chapter 12 Interest rates, The Fed s Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation Chapter 13 Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward Chapter 14 Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link Part 4: From Theory to Practice Chapter 15 Drilling Down: Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company Chapter 16 Conclusion: Making Economics Happen Appendix 1 Credit: Consumer Spending s Swing Factor Appendix 2 Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? Appendix 3 Major Industry Data Series