Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis (Paperback)

Chapter 1. Introduction and Overview of Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 2. Recent advances in the elicitation of uncertainty distributions from experts for multinomial probabilities.- Chapter 3. Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis.- Chapter 4. Customized Structural Elicitation.- Chapter 5. Bayesian Modelling of Dependence between Experts: some Comparisons with the Cooke Model.- Chapter 6. Three-Point Lifetime Distribution Elicitation for Maintenance Optimization.- Chapter 7. Adversarial Risk Analysis as a Decomposition Method for Structural Expert Judgement Modelling.- Chapter 8. A Number of Things.- Chapter 9. The Classical Model: the Early Years.- Chapter 10. An in-depth perspective on the Classical Model.- Chapter 11. Building on Foundations: an interview with Roger Cooke.- Chapter 12. Scientific advice: a personal perspective in dealing with uncertainty. An interview with Prof Dame Anne Glover.- Chapter 13. Characteristics of a Process for Subjective Probability Elicitation.- Chapter 14. Developing Training Courses for Structured Expert Judgement.- Chapter 15. Expert judgment for geological hazards in New Zealand.- Chapter 16. Using the Classical Model for source attribution of pathogen caused illnesses.- Chapter 17. Reminiscences of a Classical Model expert elicitation facilitator.- Chapter 18. Dealing with imperfect elicitation results.- Chapter 19. Structured Expert Judgement for decisions on medicines policy and management.- Chapter 20. Structured Expert Judgement Issues in a Supply Chain Cyber Risk Management System.- Chapter 21. Structured Expert Judgement in adversarial risk assessment: An application of the Classical Model for assessing geo-political risk in the insurance underwriting industry.- Chapter 22. Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment.- Chapter 23. Decision-making in early internationalization: a structured expert judgment approach.