The Airline Profit Cycle : A System Analysis of Airline Industry Dynamics (Paperback)

ContentsList of FiguresList of TablesForeword by Peter-M. MillingForeword by R. John HansmanPreface 1. The airline profit cycle as a persistent phenomenon 1.1. The development of airline traffic and cyclic financial results1.2. Consequences of the airline profit cycle1.3. Research objective and approach2. Potential causes of the airline profit cycle2.1. Literature review on business cycle drivers2.2. Systems literature on cyclical dynamics2.3. Existing airline profit cycle research2.4. Industry practitioners’ views on airline profit cyclicality2.5. Categorisation of airline profit cycle drivers3. System Dynamics model of airline industry profit development3.1. Need for a System Dynamics analysis3.2. Outline of the airline profit cycle model3.3. Decision design and mechanisms in the model3.4. Validation of model structure3.5. Calibration of the model for the U.S. airline industry3.6. Confidence in the model’s behaviour and results4. Examination of airline profitability dynamics in model experiments4.1. Identification of cycle origin area4.2. Approach to scenario analysis and sensitivity assessment4.3. Influence of general economic factors on airline profits4.4. Impact of airline industry environment on airlines’ financial performance4.5. Airlines’ behaviour as driver of cyclicality4.6. Main causes and dynamics constituting the airline profit cycle5. Conclusions for the airline industry6. References7. Appendix7.1. Appendix A: Cost classification7.2. Appendix B: Background information ATA Cost Index7.3. Appendix C: Airline profit cycle model data and equationsIndex