Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty (Paperback)

PREFACE xi

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv

1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1

Two Dead Ends 2

Analytical Engines 4

What is Probability?  6

Uncertainty 9

Willful Ignorance 12

Toward a New Science 15

2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19

Thinking the Unthinkable 21

Inventing Probability 24

Statistics 27

The Taming of Chance 31

The Ignorance Fallacy 34

The Dilemma of Science 35

3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41

Origins 43

Probability 44

The Famous Correspondence 56

What Did Not Happen Next 60

AgainstThe Odds 64

4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71

The Mathematics of Chance 73

Empirical Frequencies 82

A Quantum of Certainty 100

5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114

Publication at Last 116

The Art of Conjecturing 117

A Tragic Ending 142

6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147

Man Without a Country 150

A Fraction of Chances 165

7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171

Revolutionary Reverends 173

From Chances to Probability 194

8 BABEL 213

The Great Unraveling 216

Probability as a Relative Frequency 219

Probability as a Logical Relationship 228

Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239

Probability as a Propensity 247

9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253

The Razor’s Edge 255

What Fisher Knew 257

What Reference Class?  262

A Postulate of Ignorance 270

Laplace’s Error 279

10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283

Beyond Moral Certainty 284

Decisions, Decisions 298

Machine-Made Knowledge 309

11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312

Scientific Progress 313

Fooled by Causality 319

Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity?  331

Regression toward the Mean 339

12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346

A New Problem 347

Trust,… 354

…But Verify 357

The Future 363

Mindful Ignorance 368

APPENDIX: THE PASCAL–FERMAT

CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373

NOTES 387

BIBLIOGRAPHY 415

INDEX 429