2016년 관광수요 전망

제1장 서 론 ··············································1
제1절 연구 배경 및 목적 ·····································3
1. 연구 배경 ··········································3
2. 연구 목적 ··········································4
제2절 연구 범위 및 방법 ·····································5
1. 연구 범위 ··········································5
2. 연구 방법 ··········································5
3. 연구수행체계 ·······································6

제2장 국제관광 동향 ······································9
제1절 국제 관광시장 동향 ···································11
1. 중장기 관광시장 전망 ·······························11
제2절 한국 관광시장 동향 ···································24
1. 인바운드 관광시장 동향 ·····························24
2. 아웃바운드 관광수요 동향 ···························26

제3장 2016 국제관광수요에 대한 계량 분석 ·················29
제1절 분석 개요 및 자료 ····································31
1. 분석 개요 ·········································31
2. 분석 자료 ·········································32
제2절 KCTI 국제관광수요 계량예측 모형 ······················35
1. 모형에 사용된 변수 및 단위근 검정 ···················35
2. 예측 모형에 적용된 계량기법 ························39
3. KCTI 국제관광수요 계량예측 모형 ····················45
제3절 2017년 1/4분기(월별) 수요 전망 ························56
1. 인바운드 수요 전망 ·································56
2. 아웃바운드 수요 전망 ·······························70
제4절 2017년 연간 수요 전망 ································71
1. 인바운드 수요 전망 ·································71
2. 아웃바운드 수요 전망 ·······························84

제4장 결론 ·············································85
제1절 결론 ················································87

참고문헌 ···············································88
ABSTRACT ·············································90
부 록 : 분기별 수요예측 보고서 ···························93