전환기 남북관계 영향 요인 및 향후 정책 방향

요약 ···································································································· ⅸ
Ⅰ. 서 론 | 신종호 ····································································1

Ⅱ. 전환기 남북관계의 의미와 특징 | 신종호 ···························9
1. 현 단계 남북관계의 ‘전환기’적 의미 ··································11
2. 전환기 남북관계의 특징 및 영향 요인: SWOT 분석 ··········13

Ⅲ. 남북한 상호 인식 차이와 남북관계에 대한 영향 | 안희창 ···25
1. 남북한 상호 인식의 변천 ·······················································28
2. 남북한 상호 인식의 특징 ·····················································40
3. 남북한 상호 인식 변화 요인 ···············································51
4. 남북 상호 인식 전망과 개선 방안 ········································67

Ⅳ. 북핵문제와 남북관계에 대한 영향 | 김상기 ······················73
1. 남북관계 변수로서 북핵문제 ··················································75
2. 핵 비대칭과 남북관계 ····························································78
3. 남북한의 핵 인식과 전략 그리고 남북관계 ··························88
4. 핵 비대칭 시대 남북관계의 전망과 과제 ······························99

Ⅴ. 남북경협에 대한 남북한의 상호 인식과 정책 | 김석진 ···105
1. 남북경협에 대한 남측의 인식과 정책 ·································108
2. 남북경협에 대한 북측의 인식과 정책 ·······························121
3. 향후 전망과 접점의 모색 ···················································132

Ⅵ. 남북한 경제·사회 변화와 남북관계에 대한
영향 | 김영희·정은미 ························································137
1. 북한의 경제·사회 변화의 특징 ··········································140
2. 북한 주민들의 대남 인식에 대한 영향 ·······························155
3. 한국의 경제·사회 변화 양상과 특징 ···································165
4. 한국 국민들의 대북·통일 인식에 대한 영향 ·······················176
5. 향후 전망과 고려사항 ··························································190

Ⅶ. 국제환경 변화와 남북관계에 대한 영향 | 전재성 ···········199
1. 남북관계 변화 개관 및 이론적 틀 ······································201
2. 미소 냉전체제와 남북관계 ···················································206
3. 탈냉전기 미국 단극체제와 남북관계 ···································217
4. 탈탈냉전시기 미중 전략경쟁과 남북관계 ····························221
5. 향후 전망과 국제정세 활용 방안 ········································231

Ⅷ. 종합평가와 시사점 및 정책 방향 | 신종호·성기영 ············235
1. 종합평가 및 시사점 ·····························································237
2. 전환기 남북관계 발전의 기본 방향 및 추진 전략 ············245

참고문헌 ····························································································259
[부록] 전환기 남북관계 전문가 설문조사 | 홍순직·신종호 ············275
최근 발간자료 안내 ··········································································411