2016년 통일 예측시계

요약 ···································································································· ⅸ
Ⅰ. 서론 | 김규륜 ···································································· 1
1. 연구의 목적과 필요성 ···························································· 3

1부: 통일예측시계

Ⅱ. 연구방법론 | 홍석훈 ·························································· 7
1. 통일시계의 설계 ····································································· 9
2. 통일시계의 유형과 통일요인 설문 ······································· 17
3. 2016년 통일예측시계 조사 개요 ········································ 23

Ⅲ. 2016년 통일예측시계: 전문가 패널 조사 | 조원빈 ········ 31
1. 통일예측시계 ········································································ 33
2. 통일요인 설문조사 ································································ 47
3. 계량분석 ············································································· 103

2부: 통일예측시계의 대안 모색
Ⅳ. 통일관련 주요 사안의 전망과 분석 | 홍우택 ················ 111
1. 분석방법 ············································································· 114
2. 통일관련 사안 전망 ··························································· 117
3. 분석결과의 함의 ································································· 137

Ⅴ. 결론: 종합평가 및 시사점 | 김규륜 ······························ 139

참고문헌 ·························································································· 143
최근 발간자료 안내 ········································································ 145