경영의사결정론

제Ⅰ부 문제해결과 의사결정의 이해

제1장 문제해결과 의사결정의 이해 23
1.1 문제해결과 의사결정의 본질 26
1.1.1 문제해결과 의사결정의 개념 ···················································· 26
1) 현상과 문제 ·············································································· 27
2) 문제와 과제 ·············································································· 28
3) 현상, 문제 그리고 과제와의 관계 ·············································· 29
1.1.2 의사결정과 문제해결의 의의 ···················································· 30
1) 의사결정의 의의 ········································································ 30
2) 의사결정과 문제해결의 차이 ······················································ 31
1.1.3 문제의 유형 ············································································· 33
1) 문제의 유형이란? ······································································ 33
2) 문제의 유형별 특징 ··································································· 33
1.2 의사결정의 특성과 의사결정자의 유형 37
1.2.1 의사결정의 특성 ······································································· 37
1) 기본적인 특성 ··········································································· 37
2) 기업경영에서 의사결정 특성 ······················································ 38
1.2.2 의사결정자의 유형과 특성 ························································ 39
1) 의사결정자의 유형 ····································································· 39
2) 효과적인 문제해결자와 비효과적 문제해결자의 특징 ·················· 41
1.2.3 의사결정의 원리 ······································································· 42
1) 사이먼의 목적결정과 수단결정 원리 ·········································· 43
2) 의사결정의 보편적 원리 ···························································· 436 차 례
1.3 합리적인 의사결정 과정 45
1.3.1 합리적 의사결정의 전제요인 ···················································· 45
1) 문제해결의 필요성 인식 ···························································· 45
2) 능동적인 기업문화의 조성 ························································· 45
3) 문제해결과 관련한 정보구비 ······················································ 46
4) 문제의 소유권 여부 ··································································· 46
1.3.2 의사결정과 문제해결 능력 ························································ 46
1) 창조적 문제해결 능력 ································································ 46
2) 창조적 문제해결의 접근모델 ······················································ 47
1.3.3 의사결정의 단계와 역할 ··························································· 48
1) 문제해결을 위한 의사결정과정 ··················································· 49
2) 의사결정 단계별 역할 ································································ 50
3) 문제해결능력 향상을 위한 개선점 ············

제2장 기업의 의사결정 유형과 기준 59
2.1 의사결정의 유형 62
2.1.1 의사결정 구조화 정도에 의한 분류 ·········································· 62
1) 정형화된 의사결정 ····································································· 62
2) 비정형화된 의사결정 ································································· 63
3) 정형?비정형적 의사결정 분류 ·················································· 63
2.1.2 의사결정 상황에 따른 분류 ······················································ 65
1) 확실성하에서의 의사결정 ··························································· 65
2) 위험하에서의 의사결정 ······························································ 65
3) 불확실성하에서의 의사결정 ························································ 65
2.1.3 조직계층의 수준에 따른 분류 ··················································· 66
1) 전략적 의사결정 ········································································ 66
2) 관리적 의사결정 ·····························
3) 업무적 의사결정 ········································································ 66
2.1.4 의사결정 주체에 따른 분류 ······················································ 67
1) 개인의사결정 ············································································· 68
2) 집단의사결정 ············································································· 69
2.1.5 경영문제 해결의 접근방법에 따른 분류 ·································· 69
2.2 의사결정의 기준과 모형 70
2.2.1 의사결정 기준 ·········································································· 70
1) 합리성 의사결정 ········································································ 70
2) 민주성 의사결정 ········································································ 71
2.2.2 의사결정 모형 ·········································································· 71
1) 합리적 경제인모형(rational-economic model) ····························· 72
2) 만족화 모형(satisfying model) ··················································· 73
3) 점증적 모형(incremental model) ················································ 74
4) 최적모형(optimal model) ··························································· 75
5) 혼합모형(mixed scanning model) ·············································· 75
6) 쓰레기통 모형(garbage can model) ···········································77

제3장 문제해결을 위한 창조적 사고 83
3.1 창조적 사고와 사고력 86
3.1.1 사고와 사고력 ·········································································· 86
1) 사고와 사고력의 의미 ································································ 86
2) 창조적 사고의 메커니즘 ···························································· 88
3) 창의력의 인지과정 ····································································· 90
4) 사고력 향상 기술 ······································································ 92
3.2 창조적 사고기법의 종류와 활용 93
3.2.1 창조적 사고기법의 종류 ··························································· 94
1) 대안개발을 위한 발산적 사고기법 ·············································· 94
2) 대안평가를 위한 수렴적 사고기법 ·············································· 96
3) 행위계획을 위한 태도기법 ························································· 97
3.2.2 창조적 사고기법의 목적과 용도 ··············································· 98
1) 발산적 사고기법의 목적과 용도 ················································· 98
2) 수렴적 사고기법의 목적과 용도 ················································· 99
3.3 창조적 사고기법의 효과 100
3.3.1 전이효과 ················································································ 100
3.3.2 교육적 효과 ··········································································· 101
3.3.3 창조적 사고의 촉진 ································································ 102
1) 확산적 사고의 유도를 위한 환경조성 ······································· 102
2) 창조적 아이디어는 정보의 공유에서 출발 ································ 103
3) 잠재적 창의력의 인식과 자신감 고취 ······································· 103
4) 아이디어의 지속적인 개발을 통해 창출 ···································· 103
5) 창조적인 사고의 자극과 생활화 ··············································· 103


제Ⅱ부 합리적 의사결정 과정

?제4장 문제의 진단과 문제의 탐색 109
4.1 문제의 진단 112
4.1.1 현상의 파악 ··········································································· 112
4.1.2 문제의 인식 ··········································································· 113
1) 문제의 인식이란? ····································································· 113
2) 문제해결을 위한 인식 ······························································ 115
4.2 문제의 진단절차 및 활용기법 117
4.2.1 문제의 진단절차 ····································································· 117차 례 9
1) 문제의 탐색 ············································································· 118
2) 문제의 특성분석 ······································································ 118
3) 문제의 타당성 분석 ································································· 119
4) 문제의 가정과 제약조건 분석 ·················································· 120
5) 문제의 정의 ············································································· 121
4.2.2 문제의 진단기법 ····································································· 122
4.3 문제의 탐색기법 123
4.3.1 파레토기법 ············································································· 125
1) 개념과 용도 ············································································· 125
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 127
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 127
4.3.2 7-S 모형기법 ·········································································· 130
1) 개념과 용도 ············································································· 130
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 132
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 134
4.3.3 PEST 모형기법 ······································································· 135
1) 개념과 용도 ············································································· 135
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 136
3) 활용방법 ·················································································· 138
4.3.4 SWOT 모형기법 ····································································· 139
1) 개념과 용도 ············································································· 139
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 139
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 143
4.3.5 5 Forces 분석 ········································································ 144
1) 개념과 용도 ············································································· 144
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 145
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 148
4.3.6 360도 레이더스크린 기법 ······················································· 149
1) 개념 및 적용방법 ···································································· 149
2) 활용 사례 ················································································ 150
?제5장 문제의 분석 155
5.1 문제의 분석이란 158
5.2 문제의 분석기법 160
5.2.1 KT 기법 ················································································· 160
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 160
2) 적용 방법 및 효과 ··································································· 161
3) 활용 사례 ················································································ 165
5.2.2 육하질문 원칙기법 ·································································· 169
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 169
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 169
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 171
5.2.3 드릴다운 기법 ········································································ 173
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 173
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 173
5.2.4 인과관계 다이어그램 기법 ······················································ 174
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 174
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 176
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 177
5.2.5 인지기법 ················································································ 181
1) 인지기법의 개념과 특징 ··························································· 181
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 181
3) 인지기법의 활용사례 ································································ 182
5.2.6 Why-Why 기법 ······································································ 183
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 183
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 184
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 185차 례 11
5.2.7 시스템 다이어그램 기법 ························································· 186
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 186
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 186
5.2.8 로직트리 기법 ········································································ 189
1) 로직트리의 개념과 특징 ··························································· 189
2) MECE의 원리와 적용 ······························································· 190
3) 로직트리의 적용방법과 주의사항 ·············································· 192
제6장 문제의 정의 201
6.1 문제의 정의란 204
6.1.1 문제 정의의 중요성 ································································ 204
6.1.2 문제의 우선순위 ····································································· 206
1) 문제우선순위란 ········································································ 206
2) 문제우선순위의 기준 ································································ 207
3) 문제우선순위의 결정 ································································ 208
6.2 문제의 정의기법 206
6.2.1 문제 우선순위 분석기법 ························································· 209
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 209
2) 적용절차 및 활용사례 ······························································ 210
6.2.2 가치나무기법 ·········································································· 212
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 212
2) 적용절차 ·················································································· 213
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 214
6.2.3 Why-Because Analysis ···························································· 215
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 215
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 216
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 218
6.2.4 Duncker 기법 ········································································ 219
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 219
2) 적용 방법 ················································································ 220
3) 해결사례 ·················································································· 220
6.2.5. 진술-재진술 기법 ·································································· 222
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 222
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 223
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 224
?제7장 창조적 대안의 개발 229
7.1 대안개발의 이해 232
7.1.1 대안개발의 의의 ····································································· 232
1) 대안개발의 중요성 ··································································· 232
2) 대안개발의 기법 ······································································ 233
7.2 자유연상법 234
7.2.1 브레인스토밍 ·········································································· 235
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 235
2) 브레인스토밍의 원리와 규칙 ···················································· 236
3) 적용 방법과 절차 ···································································· 238
4) 브레인스토밍의 효과와 문제점 ················································· 246
7.2.2 브레인라이팅(BW) ·································································· 247
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 247
2) 브레인라이팅(Brainwriting)의 사용방법 ····································· 248
3) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 249
7.2.3 수평적 사고법 ········································································ 250
1) 수평적 사고의 의의와 이론적 배경 ·········································· 250
2) CoRT 프로그램의 의의 ···························································· 252
3) CoRT 프로그램의 진행요령 ······················································ 254
7.2.4 정성조사기법 ·········································································· 261
1) 정성적 기법의 개념 ································································· 261
2) 정성적 기법의 종류 ································································· 262
7.3 강제연상법 264
7.3.1 체크리스트법 ·········································································· 266
1) 의미 ························································································ 266
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 266
3) 장점과 단점 ············································································· 267
7.3.2 스캠퍼 ···················································································· 268
1) 배경 및 의미 ··········································································· 268
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 268
7.3.3 속성열거법 ············································································· 271
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 271
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 272
7.3.4 결점열거법과 희망열거법 ························································ 274
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 274
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 275
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 276
7.3.5 강제결합법 ············································································· 277
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 277
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 278
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 278
7.3.6 기타 강제연상법 ····································································· 279
1) 입출법과 초점법 ······································································ 279
2) 형태분석법 ·············································································· 280
7.4 유추발상법 282
7.4.1 시네틱스법 ············································································· 283
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 283
2) 유추발상 방법 ········································································· 284
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 286
7.4.2 고든법 ···················································································· 287
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 287
2) 원리와 적용방법 ······································································ 288
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 289
7.4.3 NM법 ····················································································· 290
1) 의의 ························································································ 290
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 291
7.5 기타 응용기법 292
7.5.1 브레인스토밍 응용기법 ··························································· 292
1) 역브레인스토밍기법 ································································· 292
7.5.2 브레인라이팅 응용기법 ··························································· 293
1) 브레인라이팅 게시기법 ···························································· 293
2) 아이디어 풀기법 ······································································ 295
3) 갤러리 기법 ············································································· 295
4) 기타 응용기법 ········································································· 296
제8장 대안의 평가기준수립과 평가 303
8.1 대안의 평가기준 수립 306
8.1.1 평가기준의 개발 이해 ····························································· 306
1) 평기기준 수립의 의의 ······························································ 306
2) 대안의 평가기준 마련 시 전제조건 ·········································· 307
8.1.2 평가기준의 수립방법과 고려요소 ············································ 308
1) 평가기준 마련 시 고려요소 ······················································ 308
2) 평가기준 수립의 방법 ······························································ 310
8.2 대안의 평가의의와 방법 311차 례 15
8.2.1 대안평가의 의의 ····································································· 311
8.2.2 KJ 기법 ·················································································· 313
1) 개념과 특징 ············································································· 313
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 313
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 316
8.2.3 하이라이팅 기법 ····································································· 318
1) 개념 ························································································ 318
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 318
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 319
8.2.4 ALU와 PMI 기법 ···································································· 320
1) ALU ························································································ 321
2) PMI ························································································· 322
8.2.5 비용.편익분석(Cost-Benefit Analysis) ···································· 325
1) 비용?편익분석 기법의 개념 ···················································· 325
2) 비용?편익분석의 적용방법 ······················································ 326
3) 대안비교의 접근방법 ································································ 328
4) 활용사례 ·················································································· 330
8.2.6 의사결정 모형평가 기법 ························································· 331
1) 개념과 종류 ············································································· 331
2) 평가 기준 및 분석 ··································································· 333
3) 불확실성하의 의사결정 평가기준 ·············································· 339
8.2.7 장.단점 평가 기법 ······························································· 344
1) 개념 ························································································ 344
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 344
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 345
8.2.8 델파이법 ················································································ 346
1) 의의 및 특징 ··········································································· 346
2) 적용절차 ·················································································· 347


제Ⅲ부 창조적 문제해결 능력 활용

제9장 대안의 비교와 최선안의 선택 353
9.1 대안의 비교과정과 결정이해 356
9.1.1 대안의 비교와 결정 ································································ 356
1) 대안의 우선순위 결정 ······························································ 356
2) 대안의 민감도 분석 ································································· 357
3) 대안의 정확도와 신뢰도 검증 ·················································· 358
9.2 대안의 비교 기법 358
9.2.1 스티커 투표 기법 ··································································· 359
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 359
2) 적용 방법 ················································································ 360
3) 활용 사례 ················································································ 361
9.2.2 2안 비교법 ············································································· 361
1) 개념 ························································································ 361
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 361
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 363
9.2.3 가중대조법 ············································································· 364
1) 개념 ························································································ 364
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 364
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 367
9.2.4 가정 표면화 기법 ··································································· 368
1) 개념 ························································································ 368
2) 적용방법 및 활용 사례 ···························································· 368
9.3 최선안의 선택기법 369
9.3.1 What-If 분석법 ······································································· 370
1) 개념 ························································································ 370
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 371
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 372
9.3.2 목표 탐색법 ··········································································· 373
1) 개념 ························································································ 373
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 373
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 374
9.3.3 CATWOE 기법 ······································································· 375
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 375
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 375
3) 활용사례 ·················································································· 377
9.3.4 육색사고모자 기법 ·································································· 378
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 378
2) 적용 방법 및 규칙 ··································································· 380
3) 육색사고모의 사고 형태 및 활용사례 ·······································382
?제10장 선택안의 실행 및 평가 389
10.1 선택안의 실행과 통제 계획 392
10.1.1 대안의 실행계획 수립 ··························································· 392
1) 대안의 실행계획 ······································································ 392
2) 실행계획 수립 과정 ································································· 393
10.1.2 대안의 통제계획 ··································································· 393
1) 실행계획의 점검 및 통제 ························································· 393
10.2 선택안의 실행기법 394
10.2.1 간트 차트 ··········································································· 39618 차 례
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 396
2) 구성요소 및 적용방법 ······························································ 397
3) 활용사례 및 장?단점 ····························································· 400
10.2.2 PERT/CPM ············································································ 401
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 401
2) 적용방법 ·················································································· 402
3) PERT/CPM의 수행단계 ····························································· 408
4) AOA & AON 네트워크 작성과 일정계산 ·································· 411
10.2.3 잠재적 문제분석법 ································································ 414
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 414
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 415
10.2.4 시나리오 분석 ······································································ 419
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 419
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 420
10.2.5 실행 체크리스트 ··································································· 426
1) 개념 및 특징 ··········································································· 426
2) 적용방법 및 활용사례 ······························································ 427
10.3 실행의 평가 및 합리적인 의사결정 428
10.3.1 평가의 일반적 지침 ······························································ 428
10.3.2 합리적인 의사결정과 오류 ···················································· 429
1) 합리적인 의사결정 ··································································· 429
2) 의사결정의 오류 ······································································ 430
10.4 팀 활동의 이해 432
10.4.1 팀의 형성과정 ······································································ 432
1) 팀 형성과정 이해 ···································································· 432
2) 팀워크 혁신방법 ······································································ 434
3) 팀워크 문제발생시 해결방법 ···················································· 438
10.4.2 팀 활동방법 ·········································································· 439
1) 브레인스토밍과 코이노니아 활용 문제해결 ······························· 439
2) 브레인스토밍과 코이노니아의 활용 ·········································· 443
3) 기타 활용방법 ········································································· 446
10.4.3 아이디어 뱅크 만들기 ··························································· 448
참고문헌 ·········································································································· 453
찾아보기 ·········································································································· 459