Survivors Become The Strong

PROLOGUE

CHAPTER 1 _ CRISES REDUX

01 Boom and Bust Cycle
Recurring crises
1997 Asian crisis: Temptation and mismatch
2008 global crisis: Imbalance and burst bubble
Crises in Korea: Trial and error

02 Bubbles Eventually Burst
Investor or speculator
Greed and speculation
Inevitable burst of bubble

03 Crises like Typhoons
Misjudgments by authorities
Fearful tranquility
Tariff and currency wars: Beggar-my-neighbor
Birth of IMF and GATT

CHAPTER 2 _ 1997 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

04 Liquidity Mismatch
Typhoon from Southeast Asia
Capital flood and currency appreciation
Sudden outflow of foreign money
Forced change: IMF program
Wounds of crisis
Asian cooperation: Chiang Mai Initiative

05 Korean Economy in a Nutcracker
Pre-crisis missteps
Nut in nutcracker
Overvalued won and flat tariff rate
Cracked nut: Deterioration in current account balance
Failure in customs management
Steps to improve competitiveness

06 1997 Foreign Exchange Crisis in Korea
Economic health indicator: Current account balance
Crisis prevention measures
Kia Motors: Too big to fail
Escaping trap of flat tariff rate
Overcoming trap of overvalued won
Fuse of a crisis: Merchant banks
Sharp withdrawals of short-term funds
Failed financial reforms
Efforts coming to naught

07 Forced Changes: IMF Bailout
Requesting IMF help
Strategies of negotiation with IMF
IMF economic program
Presidents’ talk: Finish in one day
Consensus on economic program
Side letter: Tough negotiations
Birth of consolidated supervisory body
Record bailout: US$58.3 billion
Negotiation for debt rollover
Agreement in New York
Birth of a leftist government

CHAPTER 3 _ LEGACY OF CRISIS

08 Repaying of Borrowed Income
Eagerness and ignorance
Crisis wounds: Massive job losses and closures
Survival tools: Exchange rate and foreign reserves

09 Crisis Lessons: No Friend in Need
Crisis repeats itself
External balance should be prioritized
Exchange rate is a matter of sovereignty
Foreign exchange reserves are life line
R&D supplies edge

10 Legacy of Leftist Government
A half blessing in disguise
Low investment
Return to current account deficit
Inadequate R&D investment
Labor market setback
Strengthened financial base

11 Elections and Platforms
Election economics: Good policies are bad pledges
Vision of Top 7 Nation
Pledges: Toward advanced country and community of hope
Presidential transition committee

CHAPTER 4 _ 2008 GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS

12 Unprecedented Global Crisis in 2008
Imbalance and burst of bubble
Progress of crisis: Too connected to fail
Unprecedented responses: All means mobilized
Unprecedented currency war: Open the safes
Results of crisis management: Long road ahead

13 Reflection of 2008 Economic Crisis
Obese economy: Excessive consumption and investment
‘Diet’ economy: Work hard, save more, and invest more
Inconvenient truth: Troubles in financial system
Leadership and cooperation: Birth of G-20

14 Economics of Restraint
Lessons from crisis: Restraint and reform
Dilemmas of economics: Keynes, Friedman, Hayek and Schumpeter
Experiences of Korea: Conflicting choices and policy mix
Economics of managed restraint: Toil and sweat

CHAPTER 5 _ KOREA’S RESPONSES IN 2008

15 Caught in Turmoil
Already limping in three traps
Subprime crisis on horizon
Managing crisis first

16 Strategies against Crisis: Get up and Go!
Ride out with get-up-and-go
Crisis is opportunity
Preemptive, decisive, and sufficient measures

17 Urgent Measures: Survivors Become the Strong
First move: Normalizing exchange rates
Second move: Lowering oil tax and tariff rates
Third move: Tax rebates of 240,000 won
Fourth move: Cutting interest rate and injecting liquidity
Fifth move: Korea-US currency swap
Last move: Guaranteeing bank debt with US$100 billion

18 Investment Environment: Maximizing Potential
Tax cuts: The best tool
CRET change: Ending political violence
5% of GDP in R&D: Topping the world
Quality improvement: Work-study regime
Regulatory innovation: Regulation Equity System
Expansion of labor supply: Early employment and overseas Koreans

19 Management Environment: Best in the World
Fiscal expansion: Offense brings victory
SOC investment: Four rivers development
Forex controls: Stopping ‘hot’ money
Sovereignty over forex rates: G-20 Seoul Summit agreement
Financing for overseas projects: Fostering mega-banks
Social capital build-up: Trust decides 20% of growth
Mobilizing externally: Korean diaspora and FTA

20 We Survived Stronger: Top 7 Exporter
Fastest recovery in OECD
World’s seventh-largest exporter
World’s highest R&D investment
Switchover to capital exporter
Asia’s top credit rating
Rule maker: First non-Western chair of G-20
First shift from recipient to donor 432

CHAPTER 6 _ POLITICAL ECONOMICS TO ADVANCE

21 2015 Peak vs. 2050 Richest
New abnormal and Asian century
Economics of conflicts: Much food, many problems
Raging populism on the rise
Legacy of tragic history

22 Political Economics for Advanced Nation
Beyond polarization and conflicts: Risks and opportunities
Path toward a first class nation: Growth, balance, and open-up
Political economics of spirited minds: Never up, never in

23 Way Forward: Let the Outcomes Speak
The unforgettable 2008!
Fate of public officials: Do duty, expect criticism
Last bastion of the nation: Populism, no future

EPILOGUE